The Estimation of Excess Mortality during the COVID-19Pandemic in Jakarta, Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia is among the countries affected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and DKI Jakarta Province recorded the highest number ofdeaths. This study aimed to analyze the excess mortality across five administrative cities in Jakarta stratified by gender to assess the pandemic impact onmortality. The monthly mortality data from January 2018 to December 2020 was obtained through government sources. This data helped to measure excessmortality by estimating the baseline mortality had the COVID-19 pandemic not occurred. The analysis used a linear mixed model because of its ease and flexibility in forecasting subject-specific mortality. The results showed 13,507 or 35% excess deaths in Jakarta [95% CI: 11,636 to 15,236] between June andDecember 2020. The excess numbers were found relatively higher among men than women. Furthermore, Jakarta has underreported the COVID-19 deathsat least seven times higher than the reported number of confirmed deaths.