Machine Learning and Quantum Calculation for Predicting Yield in Cu-Catalyzed P–H Reactions

Abstract

The paper discussed the use of machine learning (ML) and quantum chemistry calculations to predict the transition state and yield of copper-catalyzed P–H insertion reactions. By analyzing a dataset of 120 experimental data points, the transition state was determined using density functional theory (DFT). ML algorithms were then applied to analyze 16 descriptors derived from the quantum chemical transition state to predict the product yield. Among the algorithms studied, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) achieved the highest prediction accuracy of 97%, with over 80% correlation in Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOOCV). Sensitivity analysis was performed on each descriptor, and a comprehensive investigation of the reaction mechanism was conducted to better understand the transition state characteristics. Finally, the ML model was used to predict reaction plans for experimental design, demonstrating strong predictive performance in subsequent experimental validation.