Receitas e gastos governamentais: Uma análise de causalidade para o caso brasileiro

Abstract

The aimof this paper is to analyze the tax-spend debate for the Brazilian case, that is, if an increase in public spending leads to an increase in government revenues, or if there is a reverse causality (the increase in government revenues leading to an increase in public spending). The empirical analysis is based on cointegration and vector error correction models and the data ranges from the 1st quarter/1999 to the 3rd quarter/2008. The results show that the Brazilian government follows a "spend and tax" policy. It means that more government spending leads to permanently higher taxes.