Long-Term Phenological Shifts in Butterfly Species from Transylvania, Romania—A Case Study

Abstract

Insects can respond rapidly to climate change through population fluctuations, range shifts, altered voltinism, life cycle changes, flight period adjustments, behavioural shifts, and changes in habitat or food preference—often varying by region due to local environmental and anthropogenic factors. While the phenological cycles of diurnal lepidopterans have been extensively studied in countries with large monitoring networks, eastern and southeastern Europe remain under-researched. This study provides the first insights into phenological shifts in 16 butterfly species in Cluj-Napoca (Transylvania, Romania) between 1921 and 2023, using a unique dataset combining historical and recent records. The species studied include spring-emerging, multivoltine, and migratory butterflies. Phenological trends were analyzed in relation to long-term climatic data. Results show that spring species now emerge approximately 15 days earlier, and autumn species extend their flight periods by up to 23 days. These changes correlate with multi-decadal trends in temperature and precipitation. We also discuss changes in voltinism and migratory behaviour and the potential impacts of climate change on butterfly populations in the study region.