A Spatio-temporal analysis of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy

Abstract

Within two weeks from the first detection of the SARS-CoV-2 positive patient on 21 February, from Lombardy the disease has spread over every region in Italy. The main objective of this study is to identify spatial effects and spatiotemporal patterns of the outbreak of COVID-19 in different regions of Italy. Spatial indicators for different periods, as Moran's I, local Moran, LISA clusters, Getis and Ord G, and scatterplots are used for this purpose. Results confirm the great presence of spatial effects as well as changes in spatial regimes between the quarantine and the easing phase. The evidence could be of help for policy-makers to a proper assessments of health strategies aware of local characteristics.