A modeling approach to maintenance decisions using statistical quality control and optimization

Abstract

Maintenance concerns impact systems in every industry and effective maintenance policies are important tools. We present a methodology for maintenance decision making for deteriorating systems under conditions of uncertainty that integrates statistical quality control (SQC) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). We use simulation to develop realistic maintenance policies for real-world environments. Specifically, we use SQC techniques to sample and represent real-world systems. These techniques help define the observation distributions and structure for a POMDP. We propose a simulation methodology for integrating SQC and POMDPs in order to develop and evaluate optimal maintenance policies as a function of process characteristics, system operating and maintenance costs. A two-state machine replacement problem is used as an example of how the method can be applied. A simulation program developed using Visual Basic for Excel yields results on the optimal probability threshold and on the accuracy of the decisions as a function of the initial belief about the condition of the machine. This work lays a foundation for future research that will help bring maintenance decision models into practice. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.