Challenges and the Way Forward in Demand-Forecasting Practices within the Ethiopian Public Pharmaceutical Supply Chain

Abstract

This study delves into the challenges of pharmaceutical forecasting within the Ethiopian public pharmaceutical supply chain, which is vital for ensuring medicine availability and optimizing healthcare delivery. t It aims to identify and analyze key hindrances to pharmaceutical forecasting in Ethiopia, employing qualitative analysis through semi-structured interviews with stakeholders. Thematic analysis using NVIVO 14 software reveals challenges including finance-related constraints, workforce shortages, and data quality issues. Financial challenges arise from funding uncertainties, causing delayed procurement and stockouts. Workforce shortages hinder accurate forecasting, while data quality issues result from incomplete and untimely reporting. Recommendations include prioritizing healthcare financing, investing in workforce development, and improving data quality through technological advancements and enhanced coordination among stakeholders.