Providing distributed forecasts of precipitation using a Bayesian nowcast scheme

Abstract

This article presents examples of the nowcast products that can be generated using a stochastic Bayesian precipitation nowcast scheme. Using this scheme, one can view QPF distributions, variance (uncertainty) fields and cumulative probability distributions by point/pixel and, by simulating small catchments as a collection of pixels, the uncertainty characteristics at different spatial scales. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.