A Modified SIR Model for the COVID-19 Epidemic in China

Abstract

The analysis of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is of great importance to deeply understand the dynamics of this coronavirus spread. Based on the complexity of it, a modified susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model is applied to analyse the time dependence of active and hospitalized cases in China. The time evolution of the virus spread in different provinces was adequately modelled. Changeable parameters among them have been obtained and turned to be not naively independent with each other. The non-extensive parameter was found to be strongly connected with the freedom of systems. Taken into the prevention and treatment of disease, more measures by the government lead to higher values of it.