OPTIMIZED SHIFTS in SOWING TIMES of FIELD CROPS to the PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES in AN AGRO-CLIMATIC ZONE of PAKISTAN

Abstract

This paper evaluates 30-year (2013-2042) projections of the selected climatic parameters in cotton/wheat agro-climatic zone of Pakistan. A statistical bias correction procedure was adopted to eliminate the systematic errors in output of three selected general circulation models (GCM) under A2 emission scenario. A transfer function was developed between the GCM outputs and the observed time series of the climatic parameters (base period: 1980-2004) and applied to GCM future projections. The predictions detected seasonal shifts in rainfall and increasing temperature trend which in combination can affect the crop water requirements (CWR) at different phonological stages of the two major crops (i.e. wheat and cotton). CROPWAT model is used to optimize the shifts in sowing dates as a climate change adaptation option. The results depict that with reference to the existing sowing patterns, early sowing of wheat and late sowing of cotton will favour decreased CWR of these crops.