Research progress on risk analysis of cascade reservoirs in river basin

Abstract

Hydropower construction in China is at the peak concerning the development of cascade reservoirs in river basins. A series of cascade reservoirs have been planned and constructed. However, due to different geological conditions, risk design standards, operationalaging degrees of each cascade in the river basin, and the interaction among different cascades, the risks associated with cascade reservoirs are higher than in a single reservoir. Risk analysis of cascade reservoirs in a river basin is related to engineering safety and social public safety. Based on descriptions of the development, construction status, and risk characteristics of cascade reservoirs in China's river basins, this paper summarizes the research progress in the risk analysis of cascade reservoirs such as risk/loss assessment, the probability risk of dam failure, risk standards, cascade failure risk, and the overall risk management of cascade reservoirs. The paper posits that the combination of multisource and compound risks in a watershed system, cascade failure mode, system failure probability under specific risk combinations, the joint operation of reservoirs and risk disposal measures, and the formulation of safety standards for cascade reservoirs will be the key research directions in the future. The research results are expected to provide valuable reference for the rolling development, safe operations management, and risk emergency disposal of cascade reservoirs in river basins.