Enhanced Prediction and Determination of Hydrological Drought at Ungauged River Intake Stations under Changing Climate

Abstract

Droughts, which are expected to worsen under global climate change, have major impacts on human life and the natural environment. In this study, an analysis system was established for predicting and determining hydrological drought conditions at ungauged water stations and in watersheds connected to municipal river water intake facilities. The aim was to help prevent drought damage or minimize its effects based on an immediate response to severe drought events. A system is presented for the selection of ungauged watersheds that take in river water, and three methodologies are proposed for identifying and forecasting hydrological drought conditions. Two South Korean pilot sites among the numerous ungauged water intake plants that lack local data collection facilities were selected as study areas. In addition, a roadmap for the establishment of standards for the determination of drought conditions in ungauged river basins was proposed. The methodologies introduced in this study assume nationwide expansion and construction. Their utilization can facilitate effective drought responses, based on drought forecasting and restricted water supply criteria for each phase of water intake, at local (and other) waterworks.