PRECIS-model simulated changes in climatic parameters under various scenarios in different agro-climatic zones of Punjab

Abstract

In this study,the future simulated climatic data (temperature and rainfall) for the 21st century were downscaled using the regional climate model, viz., PRECIS model (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) for different agro-climatic zones, i.e., Zone II (Ballowal Saunkhri), Zone III (Ludhiana, Amritsar, Patiala and Jalandhar) and Zone V (Bathinda) of Punjab. The corrected simulated data were then analyzed on the annual and seasonal basis to quantify the changes in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall. The study showed that the maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall by the end of 21st century are likely to increase by 2.0 to 2.2 °C, 3.3 to 5.4 °C and 33 to 66% respectively in agro-climatic zone II; by 0.4 to 5.8 °C, 2.5 to 7.4 °C and 3 to 62% respectively in agro-climatic zone III and by 0.5 to 4.0 °C, 4.7 to 7.7 °C and 58 to 69% respectively in agro-climatic zone V at different locations of Punjab state under various scenarios of climate change. The trend analysis of these parameters revealed there is positive linear increasing trend under different scenarios in the Punjab state.