ENHANCING FORECAST-BASED DISASTER RESPONSE IN NEPAL

Abstract

Implementation of humanitarian actions in advance of a disaster event is a new approach to enhance overall effectiveness of disaster responses. Early actions following forecasts and early warnings can significantly reduce disaster losses and the cost of disaster recovery. Evidence from pilot projects reveal potential to integrate forecast-based humanitarian actions into disaster preparedness planning. Building on advanced technologies, it has been possible to predict disaster risk of many meteorological and hydrological hazards like heavy rainfall, storm surges, flood, drought and cyclones. Nepal has developed communitycentered, end to end flood early warning systems, which have utilised different global and regional weather forecasting models. The models have the capability to provide weather and flood scenarios three days in advance. In this study, we carefully examine current practices and approaches to explore opportunities to use weather forecasts, flood alerts and warning to inform forecast-based humanitarian actions. Furthermore, we analysed existing policy provisions and legal mandates in Nepal to assess the availability of enabling environment needed for adopting forecast-based humanitarian actions. We also present our learning from piloting this approach to disaster preparedness planning in 19 selected districts of Nepal. Our findings suggest that adequate legal provisions and appropriate institutional mechanisms are essential to ensure effective implementation of forecastbased early actions. It is important and urgent to depart from traditional post-event relief approach to a risk-informed preventive decision-making. Technological limitations and operational gaps between agencies are major barriers to proactive actions. The challenges can be overcome through sufficient legal provisions, technical guidelines and protocols to clarify roles, responsibilities and accountabilities of the authorities.