Climatic Drivers of Flowering Synchrony in ‘Hass’ Avocado Under Tropical Andean Conditions

Abstract

Understanding how climatic variability shapes the reproductive behavior of perennial crops is essential for improving their adaptation to tropical mountain environments. This study examined the influence of altitudinal and thermal gradients on flowering synchrony in ‘Hass’ avocado (Persea americana Mill.) cultivated across the tropical Andes of Colombia. Climatic variables and phenological stages were monitored across three elevations (2056, 2212, and 2338 m.a.s.l.) during two production cycles. Principal component, confirmatory factor, and circular statistical analyses were applied to integrate multivariate climatic structure with temporal flowering patterns. Results revealed that temperature was the main climatic driver of phenological variability, with significant differences among altitudes. The study revealed an altitudinal thermal–hydric gradient structuring distinct microclimates between 2050 and 2350 m.a.s.l., which determine the synchrony and rate of ‘Hass’ avocado phenological processes. Anthesis was the most environmentally sensitive phase, showing greater stability at intermediate elevations (~2200 m). Multivariate (PCA, CFA, ANOVA) and circular analyses confirmed that accumulated temperature (GDD) effectively predicts phenological progression, defining an optimal altitudinal range for synchrony and productivity in high Andean temperate zones.