Shattering the paradox of guns and crime: Incidence, prevalence, and the 2020 Stockholm Prize

Abstract

The apparent paradox of guns and crime is that gun homicide rates have been dropping for three decades in the United States while the number of guns in circulation has been rising. Those trends form an apparent paradox because guns are so much more lethal, given an attack, than other weapons, and in general, the more weapons in a state, the higher the rate of death from firearms. As both winners of the 2020 Stockholm Prize have shown, an additional element of evidence is needed to understand why there is no true paradox. With the declining percentage of households owning guns (at least until COVID-19), the prevalence of gun ownership has been declining, even while the incidence (mean number of guns owned per owner) has been rising. The key to reducing gun violence, and perhaps suicides as well, may thus be reduced prevalence, even with rising incidence.