Evaluating mitigation strategies for building stocks against absolute climate targets

Abstract

With the growing urgency of addressing climate change it is increasingly important that decision makers at all levels are equipped to take efficient mitigation actions. This research evaluates the potential of four mitigation strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the building stock based on a case study, and these are further evaluated in terms of alignment with the remaining global emission budget and the planetary boundary for global warming. The results cover annual emissions from 2023 to 2050 across 18 impact categories, thus highlighting possible impact burden-shifting that may occur as a result of the mitigation strategies. The results show that decarbonisation of the electricity grid delivers a substantial reduction across impact categories. However, in absolute terms, this is counteracted by the increase in building stock. The results also show that current estimates for mitigation potentials are insufficient to comply with the remaining global emission budget. Thus, mitigation strategies should be even more ambitious: constructing 80% fewer new buildings and reducing operational energy demand by 80%. These findings highlight the urgency of taking multiple actions. The increase in demand for new buildings needs to be challenged.