COVID-19 mortality rate in Russian regions: forecasts and reality

Abstract

Relevance. COVID-19 is an extremely dangerous disease that not only spreads quickly, but is also characterized by a high mortality rate. Therefore, prediction of the number of deaths from the new coronavirus is an urgent task. Research objective. The aim of the study is to provide a more accurate estimate of the real number of coronavirus-related deaths in Russian regions. Data and methods. The main research method is econometric modeling. Comparison of various data was also applied. The authors’ calculations were based on Rosstat data, the data of the World Bank and specialized sites with coronavirus statistics in Russia and in the world. Results. We identified the factors affecting the COVID-19 mortality rates in various countries were identified, assessed how much the official Russian statistics underestimated mortality in Russian regions, and provided predictive estimates of mortality as a result of the pandemic. We also determined the number of additional coronavirus-induced deaths. Conclusions. The official data on COVID-19 mortality in Russia underestimate the actual numbers more than twofold. The number of direct and indirect victims of the pandemic in Russia at the end of July was approximately 43 thousand people.