Uncertainty analysis of rising sewer models with respect to input parameters and model structure using Monte Carlo simulations and computational fluid dynamics

Abstract

Modelling conversion processes in sewers can help minimize odour and pipe corrosion issues, but model uncertainties and errors must be understood. In this study, the Wastewater Aerobic/ Anaerobic Transformation in Sewers (WATS) model is implemented in two different frameworks; 1-D (CSTR-in-series) and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to study the uncertainties due to model parameters and its mathematical form. The 1-D model is used to conduct uncertainty/sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations. Time-averaged outputs were represented using a general linearized model to quantify the importance of specific parameters. The sulfide formation rate per unit area of the biofilm is the most influential parameter. Parameters controlling anaerobic hydrolysis and fermentation are also significant. Uncertainty due to model structure is studied using CFD to explore the influences of non-homogeneous surface reactions and solids settling. These showed that the 1-D model provides a reasonable characterisation of the process for simple flows in pressure mains.