Estimating the size of GDP loss in Southeast Asia due to the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

This Research Note explores how the major Southeast Asian countries were hit with negative growth rates due to the pandemic in 2020. National income was markedly reduced to a lower level and, even with present growth rates back at pre-pandemic levels, there will be permanent effects. The level trajectory for GDP will necessarily be lower compared to a non-COVID scenario with positive economic growth. Exponential smoothing is applied to GDP data for 2000–2019 with the purpose of estimating incomes for a non-COVID case and the deviation from the actual GDP in order to measure the loss of incomes. For the pandemic years, the negative impacts are most severe for countries with relatively large service sectors (Malaysia, Thailand) and less so for countries with a diversified economy or a large agricultural sector (Vietnam, Laos).