Analysis of probability value of risk and its influence on agribusiness of citrus cultivators (case: Parbuluan IV Village, Parbuluan Subdistrict, Dairi District)

Abstract

The production and price of citruses in the Parbuluan IV Village were very fluctuating. The citrus production has dropped dramatically from 2014 until 2016. From the productions and price, it is known that there is a probability of risk in this area. The purpose of this study was to analyse the types of risks faced by citrus agribusiness actors and analyse the value of risk probability and its effect on citrus agribusiness actors in Parbuluan IV Village. The method to determine the research area used was the purposive sampling method so that the research was conducted in Parbuluan Village IV. Parbuluan Village IV was chosen because the productivity of citrus was decreasing in recent years and the price selling of citruses at the farmers level had not comparable with the price selling of citrus at the consumers level. The results showed that the risks faced by agribusiness actors consist of internal risks and external risks. The probability value of production risk of 57.14% means that the chance of risk to occur is high and the probability value of price risk of 46.02% means that the chance of risk to occur is low.