Societal Protection and Population Vulnerability: Key Factors in Explaining Community-Level Variation in Fatal Fires Involving Older Adults in Sweden

Abstract

Based on evidence from previous studies, fire mortality rates among older adults on a local level seem to be related two dimensions; population vulnerability and societal protection. In this paper, we investigate the magnitude of the impacts of variation along these two dimensions on the rate of fatal fires involving at least one older adult (65 + years) in Swedish municipalities. Our empirical strategy involves using principal components analysis to estimate the two dimensions based on data on the health of the older population, factors related to municipal rescue service efficiency, as well as other factors that may indirectly effect efficiency (such as urbanization rates and economic conditions). We then use Poisson regression models to study how mortality rates vary with changes along each dimension while keeping the other constant. The results support previous evidence suggesting that an efficient rescue service is important for low fire mortality rates. However, we also find evidence that variations in the vulnerability of the older population may play an equally important role. As such, the results indicate while improved societal protection is important in order to reduce fire-related mortality rates, merely focusing on these aspects will not eliminate the risk-increasing aspect of population vulnerability. In turn, this implies a need for a multifaceted approach to local fire mortality prevention that targets both rescue service efficiency and population vulnerability.