Conceptual modelling of adaptive biomass management facing climate risk in agro-silvopastoral systems

Abstract

Biomass recycling plays a key role in the functioning of agro-silvopastoral systems. In West Africa, the variability of rainfall impacts the management of this biomass to feed men, livestock, soil and plants. This study describes a conceptual model of action, based on "if-then-else" rules, which represent the management decisions of the biomass by the farm households. The study underlines the cascading consequences of rainfall hazard on the farming activity schedule, the quantities and the nature of the mobilized biomasses. The most directly impacted activities are planting and harvesting of crops, animal feeding and, indirectly, soil fertilization and the management of food stocks. The action model encompasses the management rules and conditions constituting the practices of the farm households. It is defined for four types of mixed crop-livestock households defined according to their dominant activities: Crop versus livestock, and food versus income. Food and livestock households are more sensitive to rainfall variations. They present a type of management that is more adaptive because they are more dependent on their own produced biomasses. This action model was designed for its integration into an agent-based model to simulate the consequences of climatic hazards on biomass flows resulting from interactions between diverse households in a typical West African village.