Mode shifting probability of working people to Angkot: Is there any hope for Angkot to survive in Bandung city?

Abstract

Bandung is one of Indonesia’s major cities, holding a strategic position as the center of the Bandung Metropolitan Area. The most dominant paratransit with the widest coverage in Bandung City is the angkot, a small four-wheeled vehicle (minibus) that has been modified for use as public transportation. As it stands currently, however, this paratransit service is inadequate and unreliable, and it has pushed people to use private vehicles to support their daily commute, which causes traffic congestion to worsen. Workers are the biggest traffic-generating group in Bandung city. Their regular commute pattern as well as their large proportion in Bandung city’s population (47.78% of the total population in 2020) make this group an important determinant in Bandung City’s transportation. Shifting the workers’ mode of transportation from private to public transportation including the angkot is predicted to decrease traffic jams on some level. Through binary logistic regression, this study provides an analysis of mode shifting probability to the angkot, key factors that could be intervened to increase this shifting probability, as well as the extent to which intervention toward these factors will increase angkot usage so that it can provide a picture of future characteristics of the angkot in contrast to the current condition, should this transportation mode continue to run in the future. Based on the modeling result, the study identified four key variables that significantly influence mode shifting probability in Bandung City: 1) private vehicle ownership, 2) driving license ownership, 3) people’s perception of current transportation costs, and 4) people’s perception of the level of comfort provided by the mode of transportation. If in the future the angkot in Bandung City is improved with better comfort and affordability, approximately only 3.31% of workers will start using the angkot. This very low probability indicates that if in the future the government wants to shift working people from private vehicles to the angkot, then the angkot must be transformed.