Crash Frequency Minimization with Severity Mitigation in Road Geometric Design Using Chance Constraint Programming Optimization

Abstract

Crash frequency and crash severity are two major aspects of transportation safety. In this paper, we propose a decision-making scheme combining statistical analysis and optimization modeling to be used in transportation safety study. We conduct a safety analysis, a travel speed analysis, and an optimization analysis to develop a two-stage decision scheme to minimize crash frequency while mitigating crash severity, using data collected in urban environments in Lincoln, Nebraska. In the safety analysis and the travel speed analysis, we study the impact of lane width and other related road geometric design parameters on annual crash frequency and vehicle travel speed using count models and linear regression models, respectively. In the optimization analysis, the proposed two-stage stochastic programming model determines the lane width and other road geometric design parameters in the first stage, and then the posted road speed limit in the second stage for each scenario. To mitigate crash severity, we use a chance constraint to restrict a certain percentile of the vehicle travel speed to comply with the posted road speed limit. This two-stage decision scheme is shown to be effective for the data collected in Lincoln, Nebraska, when restricting the vehicle travel speed of up to two positive standard deviations from the mean travel speed to be under the posted speed limit. The application of a stochastic programming model that utilizes regression analysis results serves as an innovative decision scheme that effectively connects statistical analysis and optimization studies in road geometric design for transportation safety. Its objective is to minimize crash frequency while simultaneously mitigating crash severity. This methodology has extensive potential for application in various environments to assist in the reduction of both crash frequency and crash severity.