Risk of death due to hepatocellular carcinoma among drinkers and ex-drinkers. Univariate analysis of JACC study data

Abstract

Hazard ratios (HR) of death due to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were analyzed by gender and age strata (40-59 and 60-79) among drinkers and ex-drinkers in 66,974 eligible subjects from a a large cohort of male and female subjects aged 40-79 years, based on information about several drinking related characteristics. The HR of dying from HCC for ex-drinkers was 4 to 8 times higher than for those who had never consumed alcohol at the baseline survey. When the subjects were restricted to those without history of liver disease (LD), the HR was still high for ex-drinkers among younger males, though the difference was not statistically significant. It appeared that the earlier drinking habits were established, the higher the HR, especially for younger males without LD. Among total current drinkers, the amount ingested per occasion and the cumulative amount ingested at the baseline did not show significantly increased HRs. Among subjects without LD, larger amounts ingested per occasion and larger cumulative amount seemed to have higher HRs in older male current drinkers. Frequent drinking and later age (50 to 79) at cessation of drinking were associated with higher HRs among both genders and both age strata. After restricting the analysis to subjects without LD, many of these increased HRs remained among males. The results suggested that the association between alcohol drinking history and HR of HCC differs depending on the presence of LD. Major confounders other than age and gender associated with both drinking and HCC, e.g. smoking, hepatitis virus infection, or history of diabetes, were not considered in this analysis, and the observed associations might be confounded by any of these factors. To clarify the net association between alcohol drinking and HCC, further analysis is needed to control potential confounders, including past history of liver disease, and to consider probable effect modifiers.