Krigsførelsens Kredsløb i et videnskabsteoretisk perspektiv – teorier, modeller og virkelighed

Abstract

The Capability Cycle is a model that can be used to structure thinking about military capabil-ity. If, however, the intent is to analyze or explain specific problems scientifically, it needs to be linked with theory. The choice of theory is not implicit in the Capability Cycle and must be spelled out each time the model is used and always linked to the problem at hand. There is no single authoritative interpretation of the Capability Cycle. Instead, the three dominant versions of the Capability Cycle operationalize the model from very different epis-temological as wells as ontological positions, and the Capability Cycle’s authors do not always justify their analytical choices. The scientific discussion on the Capability Cycle has focused more on who said what during the development of the model than on the model’s claims of cause and effects, mechanisms, and premises. Greater clarity on the latter is a prerequisite for using it in a scientific manner, however. This article analyzes the philosophical premises for the three variants of the Capability Cycle. It enables users to engage in a critical discussion of the Capability Cycle. The aim is to enable its users to link the model with theory that is either appropriate or useful to understand the matter under inquiry or to discard the Capability Cycle as a tool to understand that specific problem.