Namibia's elephants—population, distribution and trends

Abstract

Namibia’s elephants extend across the north of the country. They occur in six main areas of the known Namibian range—the north-west, Etosha National Park (NP), Mangetti National Park, northern Kavango, Khaudum National Park/Nyae Nyae Conservancy and Zambezi Region. Seasonal changes in distribution are related to water availability. There are movements of elephants between Namibia and its neighbours, particularly Botswana, and mainly from Zambezi Region. The largest populations are found in the northeast of the country, in Khaudum/Nyae Nyae and Zambezi Region. Densities are very low in the extremely arid north-west and Etosha National Park but have recovered from historical over-hunting that almost exterminated them. The estimated rate of change for the north-west population is 3.86% per annum between-0.08% and 7.95%), which is not statistically significant. Since 1998, surveys have shown that the elephant population has been increasing slowly in Etosha National Park at an estimated annual rate of 1.75% (between 0.65% and 2.87%). The trend is statistically significant. There has been a consistent and significant increase in the Zambezi population at an estimated and biologically realistic annual rate of 4.76% (between 2.73% and 6.84%) since 1995. This trend is statistically very highly significant. The population of elephants in Khaudum National Park and Nyae Nyae Conservancy has increased at a very highly significant rate of 4.85% (between 3.24% and 6.48%). As a total population, Namibia’s elephants have been increasing at a rate of 5.36% (between 4.20% and 6.53%) since 1995. This is also statistically very highly significant.