Toward Low-Carbon Mobility: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Reduction Opportunities in Thailand’s Road Transport Sector

Abstract

Road transportation is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Thailand. This study assesses the potential for GHG mitigation in the road transport sector from 2018 to 2030. Emission factors for various vehicle types and technologies were derived using the International Vehicle Emissions (IVE) model. Emissions were then estimated based on country-specific vehicle data. In the baseline year 2018, total emissions were estimated at 23,914.02 GgCO2eq, primarily from pickups (24.38%), trucks (20.96%), passenger cars (19.48%), and buses (16.95%). Multiple mitigation scenarios were evaluated, including the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), improvements in fuel efficiency, and a shift to renewable energy. Results indicate that transitioning all newly registered passenger cars (PCs) to EVs while phasing out older models could lead to a 16.42% reduction in total GHG emissions by 2030. The most effective integrated scenario, combining the expansion of electric vehicles with improvements in internal combustion engine efficiency, could achieve a 41.96% reduction, equivalent to 18,378.04 GgCO2eq. These findings highlight the importance of clean technology deployment and fuel transition policies in meeting Thailand’s climate goals, while providing a valuable database to support strategic planning and implementation.