Effect of Agriculture Sector Performance on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Application of Panel CS-ARDL

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of agriculture performance on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using panel data from 49 countries, obtained from the ECA database, covering the period 1980–2023. The analysis employs a Cross-Sectionally Augmented ARDL (CS-ARDL) model to assess the short and long-run effects of the agriculture sector on economic growth in the region. The findings reveal that agriculture, while central to livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa, makes no significant contribution to GDP growth in either the short or long run. The results suggest that the sector is underperforming due to persistent structural challenges such as low productivity, reliance on subsistence farming, and vulnerability to external shocks. The study recommends that in the short term, SSA should boost agricultural growth by improving productivity with climate-smart technologies, expanding rural infrastructure, increasing access to credit and risk-management tools, and promoting agro-processing to transition the sector from subsistence to commercially oriented, growth-enhancing production. Over the long term, SSA should sustain agricultural transformation by diversifying exports toward higher-value products, strengthening regional trade through AfCFTA, investing in human capital, and implementing institutional reforms, including secure land tenure and consistent policies, to create an enabling environment for investment and long-term sectoral growth.