Risk Analysis of Collision between Passenger Ferry and Chemical Tanker in the Western Zone of the Baltic Sea

Abstract

This paper presents assumptions and process of the forming of a risk assessment model for collision between a passenger ferry departing from or approaching port of Swinoujscie and a chemical tanker carrying a dangerous cargo. In order to assess navigational safety on the basis of data obtained from AIS system, were prepared probabilistic domains of ships, which made it possible to estimate number of navigational incidents as well as their spatial distribution, that consequently allowed to determine potentially dangerous areas. The next phase was formulation of a simulative model intended for the calculating of probability of collision between the ferry and chemical tanker as well as the determining of characteristic scenarios for such collision. This paper presents also an analysis of consequences of the collision with taking into consideration a damage of cargo tanks.