Methodical bases for developing predictive scenarios of agribusiness

Abstract

Complexity of the agricultural business tasks, high dynamism and non-linear nature of the contemporary socio-economic processes which differs functioning of any industry are placing new re0uirements for predictive studies. The purpose of this study is to develop a set of methodological provisions for the construction of predictive scenarios of the agricultural business by identifying current trends, the impact factors of the environment and the interpretation of results forecasting and analytical calculations. This article considers the influence of climatic factors on the economic impact of the frumentaceous and the grape branches of agriculture. The system of economic and mathematical prognostics models of the main industrial indicators was developed. The methodology for scenario forecasting of indicators of frumentaceous production and vine growing was proposed based on the use of the influence of solar activity on agrobiological processes.