Indian summer monsoon prediction and simulation in CFSv2 coupled model

Abstract

Using carefully designed coupled model experiments, we have demonstrated that the prediction skill of the all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) in Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model basically comes from the El-Niňo Southern Oscillation-Monsoon teleconnection. On the other hand, contrary to observations, the Indian Ocean coupled dynamics do not have a crucial role in controlling the prediction skill of the AISMR in CFSv2. We show that the inadequate representation of the Indian Ocean coupled dynamics in CFSv2 is responsible for this dichotomy. Hence, the improvement of the Indian Ocean coupled dynamics is essential for further improvement of the AISMR prediction skill in CFSv2.