ADC-GERT network parameter estimation model for mission effectiveness of joint operation system

Abstract

Effectiveness evaluation of the joint operation system is an important basis for the demonstration and development of weapon equipment. With the consideration that existing models of system effectiveness evaluation seldom describe the structural relationship among equipment clearly as well as reflect the dynamic, the analog-to-digital converter-graphical evaluation and review technique (ADC-GERT) network parameter estimation model is proposed based on the ADC model and the joint operation system structure. Firstly, analysis of the joint operation system structure and operation process is conducted to build the GERT network, where equipment subsystems are nodes and activities are directed arches. Then the mission effectiveness of equipment subsystems is calculated by the ADC model. The probability transfer parameters are modified by the mission effectiveness of equipment subsystems based on the Bayesian theorem, with the ADC-GERT network parameter estimation model constructed. Finally, a case study is used to validate the efficiency and dynamic of the ADC-GERT network parameter estimation model.