Export trade structure transformation and countermeasures in the context of reverse globalization

Abstract

With the development of economic globalization, the problem of unequal distribution of globalization dividends among and within countries has become increasingly serious, and reverse globalization has a great impact on the national economy and export trade. This paper uses the KOF Globalization Index and the world input-output tables in World Input-Output Database (WIOD), and empirically studies the transformation of a country’s export trade and export structure in the context of reverse globalization from the perspectives of world, country, industry, subdivided manufacturing and service industry. The results show that reverse globalization has a significant non-linear negative effect on economic development and export trade. Compared with developed and European Union (EU) countries, the exports of developing and non-EU countries are more affected by reverse globalization shocks. Reverse globalization has the greatest inhibition on the secondary industry exports, followed by the tertiary industry. The suppressive effects on the exports of 12 subdivided manufacturing and 14 subdivided service in China are significantly greater than that of the United States, but most of sub-industry exports in the United States are more sensitive. Besides, China’s exports of high-product-complexity industry such as metal products, medicinal chemicals, electrical and optical products and mechanical equipments are greatly affected by reverse globalization, while the exports of water transportation, construction, land transportation are relatively less restrained.