Simulating power generation from photovoltaics in the polish power system based on ground meteorological measurements—First tests based on transmission system operator data

Abstract

The Polish power system is undergoing a slow process of transformation from coal to one that is renewables dominated. Although coal will remain a fundamental fuel in the coming years, the recent upsurge in installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) systems should draw significant attention. Owning to the fact that the Polish Transmission System Operator recently published the PV hourly generation time series in this article, we aim to explore how well those can be modeled based on the meteorological measurements provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. The hourly time series of PV generation on a country level and irradiation, wind speed, and temperature measurements from 23 meteorological stations covering one month are used as inputs to create an artificial neural network. The analysis indicates that available measurements combined with artificial neural networks can simulate PV generation on a national level with a mean percentage error of 3.2%.