Assessing future distribution, suitability of corridors and efficiency of protected areas to conserve vulnerable ungulates under climate change

Abstract

Aim: Central part of Iran harbours populations of wild ungulates that are threatened or extinct over large parts of the region, and are likely to be impacted by climate change. In this study, we predicted the impact of climate change on the distribution of three vulnerable ungulates in central Iran. We then evaluated future suitability of corridors connecting the protected areas for movement of the ungulates in response to climate change. Location: Central Iran. Methods: Impact of climate change on distribution of goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa), wild sheep (Ovis spp) and wild goat (Capra aegagrus) was predicted adapting an ensemble modelling approach and under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario. We then used CIRCUITSCAPE software with current and future distribution maps to identify corridors for movement of the three ungulates, and evaluate likely changes in their suitability under climate change. Results: Our results revealed that climate change might result in loss of 55%, 69% and 76% of suitable habitats for goitered gazelle, wild sheep and wild goat by 2070, respectively. These losses also resulted in some protected areas to become unsuitable for the ungulates. However, we identified key protected areas with the potential for future protection of these ungulates. For the three species, we also identified corridors which would persist into the future, allowing the impacted populations to move in response to climate change. Main conclusions: Conservation of ungulate populations in Iran mainly depends on the protected areas. To maintain the role of the protected areas in conserving these mammals under climate change, we recommend the incorporation of their potential future distribution into conservation plans, increasing protection status of the key protected areas, and maintain critical corridors. In this regard, combining results of distribution and connectivity models provides useful information for effective management of these ungulates in the future.