SIDE THREATS: FURTHER POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF WARMING ON THE HIGH ALPINE NARROW ENDEMIC CARABUS CYCHROIDES (COLEOPTERA: CARABIDAE)

Abstract

Carabus cychroides is an endemic ground beetle of a few high mountain slopes in the Cottian Alps. We have modelled the presence-absence data collected in a sample area, related to this species, the congener C. depressus with which it can hybridise and the small snail Chilostoma glaciale, specific prey of Carabus cychroides. The models were projected to three future periods according to four greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results indicated the future increase in niche and spatial overlap of the two beetles, which could lead to more hybridisa-tion and competition between them. If these threats occur over the entire geographic range of the already endan-gered C. cychroides, they could accelerate its predicted decline in the coming decades due to climate warming.