Quantifying expert consensus against the existence of a secret, large-scale atmospheric spraying program

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Abstract

Nearly 17% of people in an international survey said they believed the existence of a secret large-scale atmospheric program (SLAP) to be true or partly true. SLAP is commonly referred to as 'chemtrails' or 'covert geoengineering', and has led to a number of websites purported to show evidence of widespread chemical spraying linked to negative impacts on human health and the environment. To address these claims, we surveyed two groups of experts - atmospheric chemists with expertize in condensation trails and geochemists working on atmospheric deposition of dust and pollution - to scientifically evaluate for the first time the claims of SLAP theorists. Results show that 76 of the 77 scientists (98.7%) that took part in this study said they had not encountered evidence of a SLAP, and that the data cited as evidence could be explained through other factors, including well-understood physics and chemistry associated with aircraft contrails and atmospheric aerosols. Our goal is not to sway those already convinced that there is a secret, large-scale spraying program - who often reject counter-evidence as further proof of their theories - but rather to establish a source of objective science that can inform public discourse.

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Shearer, C., West, M., Caldeira, K., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Quantifying expert consensus against the existence of a secret, large-scale atmospheric spraying program. Environmental Research Letters, 11(8). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084011

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