How much meteorological information is necessary to achieve reliable accuracy for rainfall estimations?

Abstract

This paper reports the study of the effect of the length of the recorded data used for monthly rainfall forecasting. Monthly rainfall data for three periods of 5, 10, and 49 years were collected from Kermanshah, Mashhad, Ahvaz, and Babolsar stations and used for calibration time series models. Then, the accuracy of the forecasting models was investigated by the following year’s data. The following was concluded: In temperate and semi-arid climates, 60 observation data is sufficient for the following year’s rainfall forecasting. The accuracy of the time series models increased with increasing amounts of observation data of arid and humid climates. Time series models are appropriate tools for forecasting monthly rainfall forecasting in semi-arid climates. Determining the most critical rainfall month in each climate condition for agriculture schedules is a recommended aim for future studies.