Going for growth ; a theoretical and policy framework

Abstract

This paper introduces scenario planning as a tool to explore plausible developments for SMEs in the Netherlands until 2040. SMEs are acknowledged to play an important role in the economy serving as agents of change by their entrepreneurial activity, being the source of considerable innovative activity, stimulating industry evolution and creating an important share of the newly generated jobs. Entrepreneurship should therefore be promoted. There is however great uncertainty on the scale of future bottlenecks and the economic conditions under which SMEs will need to develop. There are different forces at play on the global, regional, EU, and national level that may each individually gain more importance in the near future. Government policy, it is believed, can play a considerable role in facilitating entrepreneurship on a national scale. Scenarios can help map out possible changes and what effect they may have on national welfare. This paper will discuss the different effects that globalization, regionalization, Europeanization and nationalization may have on entrepreneurship in developed countries and how policy makers may positively influence entrepreneurship by means of cluster and network development, while more generally this paper will introduce scenario analysis as a tool to further define entrepreneurship behavior. © 2007, JAPAN SECTION OF THE REGIONAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL. All rights reserved.