President Trump’s Travel Ban: inciting or deterring terrorism?

Abstract

The implementation of President Trump’s Travel Ban resulted in resounding support and opposition in the United States and abroad. Both opponents and proponents presented strong arguments focused in part on national security. The study reported here seeks to assess these claims by empirically examining the effectiveness of the policy in achieving its purported goal of decreasing terrorism. The study, using multiple analytical strategies, assesses terrorism in the United States leading up to and following the implementation of the Travel Ban. Results indicate that the policy may have contributed to a short term decrease in terrorism in the days immediately following the policy. However, this trend quickly reversed as terrorism rates significantly increased in the weeks and months following implementation.