Prediction of the Potential Distributions of Prunus salicina Lindl., Monilinia fructicola, and Their Overlap in China Using MaxEnt

Abstract

Prunus salicina Lindl. (P. salicina) is an essential cash crop in China, and brown rot (BR) is one of its most important diseases. In this study, we collected geographic location information on P. salicina and Monilinia fructicola (G. Winter) Honey (M. fructicola), one of the BR pathogenic species, and applied the MaxEnt model to simulate its potential suitable distribution in China. There have been discussions about the dominant environmental variables restricting its geographical distribution and their overlap. The results showed that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the warmest quarter, precipitation in July, and minimum temperatures in January and November were the main climatic variables affecting the potential distribution of P. salicina, while the coldest quarter, precipitation of the driest month, precipitation of March, precipitation of October, maximum temperatures of February, October, and November, and minimum temperature of January were related to the location of M. fructicola. Southern China had suitable conditions for both P. salicina and M. fructicola. Notably, the overlap area of P. salicina and M. fructicola was primarily located southeast of 91°48′ E 27°38′ N to 126°47′ E 41°45′ N. The potential overlap area predicted by our research provided theoretical evidence for the prevention of BR during plum planting.