Winter-Spring Precipitation Variability in Pakistan

Abstract

This study investigates the spatial-temporal variability of winter-spring (February-March-April) precipitation (WSP) in Pakistan over the period of 1961-2006 by making use of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF). The EOF analysis is based on ground observed data, reanalysis NCEP/NCAR of various geopotential heights and NOAA extended reconstructed sea surface temperatures (ERSST.v3). The significant modes are obviously variable at interannual time scale. The leading mode shows the node of maximum spatial variability anchored over the Peshawar Valley and Azad Kashmir (PVAK) axis. The pattern is associated with strong (weak) westerly jet over the Middle East. The pattern is also found closely associated with post monsoon and early winter El Niño.