Innovation dynamics in contrasting agri-food systems: an agent-based simulation of STI policies in Colombian coffee and avocado chains

Abstract

STI policies are key drivers of innovation but require context-specific approaches. While combining technology-push, market-pull, and systemic policies is widely advocated, empirical evidence on their effectiveness in agricultural innovation systems remains limited. This study applies the Adaptive Innovation System Model (AdaptISM), an Agent-Based Model grounded in prior theory, to analyse innovation in Antioquia, Colombia’s coffee and avocado production chains–two sectors with distinct innovation patterns. Using empirical data for model validation, we test how different policy mixes affect innovation performance and economic outcomes. The analysis reveals trade-offs and synergies across policy instruments, offering practical insights for STI design. Our findings demonstrate how established innovation models can guide evidence-based policymaking in developing economies, particularly within diverse agri-food systems. This computational approach supports more targeted resource allocation and strategy formulation, grounded in local dynamics.