Wind Energy Assessment Using Weibull Distribution with Different Numerical Estimation Methods: A Case Study

Abstract

The demand for electrical energy is increasing every day, which is one of the critical challenges facing the world today. Hence, the necessity of turning to clean renewable energy sources that are not harmful to the environment as an alternative to the traditional generation based on fossil fuels has become more important than ever before. Wind power is one of the renewable sources that provides a clean solution to generate electricity. In this context, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia announces renewable energy projects to generate 9 GW from wind in 2032. Hence, the aim of this paper is to investigate the most suitable method of Weibull parameter estimation in order to predict wind characteristics and employ it for wind energy assessment in the Qassim region located in the center of the country. In this study, wind data is collected from NASA's forecasts of global energy resources for 2010–2015 based on their availability at altitudes of 10m and 50m and analyzed by using six different methods for Weibull parameter estimation: the graphical method (GM), standard deviation method (SDM), energy pattern factor method (EPF), moment method (MM), alternative maximum likelihood method (AMLM), and novel energy pattern factor method (NEPF). The efficiency of each method is tested by calculating the root mean square error (RMSE) and the relative wind power density error (RPDE). The comparison shows that the most appropriate method for estimating wind power density in the country is the Moment Method (MM), with the lowest RPDE ratio equal to 0.2018%. It has been found that the wind power density in the Qassim region falls into the class 1 category, as it is less than 100 W/m2 at a height of 10m and less than 200 W/m2 at an altitude of 50m. The results show the region is only suitable for small off-grid projects.