An index system for evaluation of agriculture green development at county level in China

Abstract

Agriculture green development (AGD) has become an unavoidable choice to address the unique national circumstances of China. This study established a county-level AGD evaluation index system, comprised three dimensions, food production, ecological environment and socioeconomic development, using 20 indicators. The assessment delved into historical trend and current situation, utilizing Spearman rank correlation analysis to analyze trade-off and synergy relationships, using Quzhou County, Hebei Province as a case study. The main findings were in four areas. Firstly, the index for AGD in Quzhou County increased by 58.9% from 1978 to 2019. The major contribution were the social economy (65.8%) and food production (53.5%), whereas the ecological environment was found to have had a negative impact. Secondly, in 2019, the AGD index was only 56.4, indicating substantial potential for improvement relative to the target value. A notable difference in scores existed between the three dimensions, with the order being ecological environment (66.3) > food production (61.7) > socioeconomic (41.3). Also, 90% of the indicators did not reach the target value. Thirdly, relationship analysis of the indicators revealed that the synergistic effect exceeded the trade-off effect. Specifically, 46.3% of the indicators had no significant relationship, 35.3% had a synergistic relationship, and 18.4% had a trade-off relationship. Finally, interdimensional indicator relationships exhibited a trade-off effect between the ecological environment and both food production and socioeconomic dimensions. However, a positive trend of synergy between production and ecology has emerged since 2015. In conclusion, the quantitative evaluation index system exposed the unbalanced development and significant potential relative to the target value of AGD in Quzhou County, despite notable progress.