Professionalizing Intelligence Analysis

Abstract

This article examines the current state of professionalism in national security intelligence analysis in the U.S. Government. Since the introduction of major intelligence reforms directed by the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act (IRTPA) in December, 2004, we have seen notable strides in many aspects of intelligence professionalization, including in analysis. But progress is halting, uneven, and by no means permanent. To consolidate its gains, and if it is to continue improving, the U.S. intelligence community (IC) should commit itself to accomplishing a new program of further professionalization of analysis to ensure that it will develop an analytic cadre that is fully prepared to deal with the complexities of an emerging multipolar and highly dynamic world that the IC itself is forecasting. Some recent reforms in intelligence analysis can be assessed against established standards of more fully developed professions; these may well fall short of moving the IC closer to the more fully professionalized analytical capability required for producing the kind of analysis needed now by the United States.