Understanding Meteorological Changes Following Severe Defoliation during a Strong Hurricane Landfall: Insights from Hurricane Michael (2018)

Abstract

Despite prompting persistent meteorological changes, severe defoliation following a tropical cyclone (TC) landfall has received relatively little attention and is largely overlooked within hurricane preparedness and recovery plan-ning. Changes to near-track vegetation can modify evapotranspiration for months after tropical cyclone passage, thereby altering boundary layer moisture and energy fluxes that drive the local water cycle. This study seeks to understand poten-tial spatial and temporal changes in defoliation-driven meteorological conditions using Hurricane Michael (2018) as a testbed. In this sensitivity study, two Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations, a normal-landscape and a post-TC scenario, are compared to determine how a defoliation scar placed along Michael’s path alters surface heat fluxes, temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation near the storm’s track. In the month following the foliage reduc-tion, WRF resolves a 0.78C 2-m temperature increase, with the greatest changes occurring at night. Meanwhile, the simulations produce changes to the sensible and latent heat fluxes of +8.3 and-13.9 W m-2, respectively, while average relative humidity decreases from 73% to 70.1%. Although the accumulated precipitation in the defoliated simulation was larger along a narrow corridor paralleling and downwind of the hurricane track, neither simulation satisfactorily replicated post-Michael precipitation patterns as recorded by NCEP Stage IV QPE, casting doubt as to whether the downwind enhance-ment was exclusively due to the defoliation scar. This sensitivity analysis provides insight into the types of changes that may be possible following rapid and widespread defoliation during a TC landfall.