Prediction versus management models relevant to risk assessment: The importance of legal decision-making context

Abstract

Most of the theoretical and empirical literature on violence risk to date has focused on the task of predicting who will behave violently. In the present article, it is argued that at least two models of risk assessment may be applied to the varying legal decisions in which violence risk is a consideration: prediction (with an emphasis on overall accuracy) and management (with an emphasis on risk reduction). These two models are described, and discussed in the contexts of the literatures on forensic assessment and therapeutic jurisprudence. The implications for research, policy, and practice are considered.